What is the Transition? Part 3

Sea Level Rise

Have you ever seen a film of a three mile by one mile chunk of glacier falling into the sea? If not, and if you have four minutes to spare, now you can, by clicking on this link for an excerpt from the film Chasing Ice, which concludes, by the way, with a classic example of acceleration.

It helps to see films like that since the noise in the media on sea level rise is nearly deafening. A $120 million war chest can be used to make a lot of noise:

     Secret funding helped build vast network of climate denial thinktanks

Folks like these, joined by the industry spawned by the fossil fuel companies and oil exporting countries, stridently deny lots of things about climate change. In fact, some of them claim that we are right on the verge of a new ice age.  They often seem to feel the need to yell rather loudly to drown out stories like this:

     Satellites reveal sudden Greenland ice melt

     Melt ponds cause the Arctic sea ice to melt more rapidly

And charts like this that show the longer term trend for Arctic sea ice (source):

ArcticSeaIceTrend

and of course the chart of sea level rise itself:

GlobalSeaLevelTrend

Claims and counter-claims aside, there are, undeniably, people losing their homes to rising sea levels:

     Papua New Guinea: Carteret Islands: ‘The sea is killing our island paradise’

The people of the Carterets, for 300 years ignored by all but a few passers-by, can lay claim to a dubious distinction: within the next six months, some 240 of them – 40 families – will leave for good, driven from their homes by sea-level rise. In five years, half of the population, estimated at 2,500 people, is expected to have been evacuated to bigger, less vulnerable islands, some of the first refugees displaced as a result of man-made global warming. Some believe the islands will be uninhabitable by 2015.

     The view from beneath the waves: climate change in the Solomon Islands

The smaller outer islands in the Solomon Islands are already seeing devastating impacts of the rising sea level. The impact of climate change is already affecting the rural population of Solomon Islands, an archipelago of eight bigger islands and hundreds of small, mostly uninhabited islands…Taro, the staple root crop in Ontong Java atoll, is dying due to salinity of the swamp and sandy soil. And graves at the Tuo village cemetery, an island in the eastern Solomons have been exposed by eroding waves.

During the 1980s the burial place was about 50m away from the beach. Today the beach is about 1m with only one cross remaining as the rising sea had washed most away.

     Vanishing point

Unless Tuvaluans adopt the lifestyle of the Marsh Arabs and build their houses on stilts over water, and that’s where they live 24 hours a day, eventually most, if not all, of the island will become uninhabitable.

     Micronesia: A Third Kind of Nation, Written Off?

“Even the dead are no longer safe in my country,” Micronesia’s Ambassador to the UN told ABC News at his mission’s offices on a rainy day in New York.

He gave us recent digital photos of his home islands.

In one, a man stands shin-deep out in a calm and sunny sea … where a cemetery used to be.

In others, colorful traditional burial grounds spill out of a wave-eroded bank onto the tiny remaining beach, and water surges inland past tumbled houses.

     Sea change: the Bay of Bengal’s vanishing islands

     Paradise lost?

The tiny Pacific island nation of Palau is a paradise on earth. This band of several hundred islands is home to some of the world’s most stunning marine life, and to the twenty thousand people who live there.

But like many low-lying nations across the world, Palau is threatened by the effects of climate change and sea-level rise.

Palau’s coasts are being eroded, its local farmlands tainted by seawater, and its valuable reefs threatened. Johnson Toribiong, President of Palau, calls the damage he’s witnessing “a slow-moving tsunami.”

Kiribati, the Maldives, Torres Strait Islands, Cook Islands, many small islands of the Philippines, and the inhabited areas Barbados–all are getting inundated.

And it isn’t just the small islands that are having trouble. Large cities like Jakarta are facing dual difficulties: sinking land from the draining of freshwater aquifers combined with rising sea levels (source):

Experts in Indonesia are preparing to build a huge wall to stop the ocean from swamping parts of Jakarta.

Some suburbs in the capital already go underwater when there is a big tide but the problem is expected to get even worse.

Jakarta is sinking by up to 10 centimetres a year and Indonesia’s national disaster centre says with oceans rising, large parts of the city, including the airport, will be inundated by 2030.

Flooding and high tides are already causing problems for some residents in the city of 10 million people.

New York is still suffering the effects of the elevated storm surge from Superstorm Sandy.

London completed the Thames Barrier in the early 1980s to deal with rising tides boosted by increasingly powerful storms. They raise the barrier in the Thames when rising ocean waters threaten to flood London and the Thames Valley. In the 1980s, they raised the barrier 4 times; in the 1990s, 35 times; and from 2000 through 2010, 80 times.

And according to Scientific American, Shanghai, which means “above the sea” is finding itself on its way to being below the sea. The city has spent billions of dollars fending off the encroachment of the sea:

But the city’s biggest concern remains the slow, steadily mounting threat that comes from sea level rise. Higher tides are washing away the precious delta soil upon which the city’s foundations are built, and water supplies are becoming more tainted as seawater intrudes more deeply into the fresh water of the Yangtze.

Species Extinction

It seems that major changes in conditions on the planet give rise to the extinction of a large number of species. This has happened five times in the last several hundred million years. The most recent such event saw the demise of the dinosaurs. Some observers—such as the US Geological Survey for the chart below—offer data that points to the idea that we are in the middle of the sixth such mass species extinction event:

SpeciesExtinction

This indicates that the changes we are experiencing are way beyond trivial.

Here is Part 4.

What is the Transition? Part 1

I have made reference to “the Transition.” Before trying to describe its essence, it will be useful to first review aspects of the Transition, in other words, some of its identifiable characteristics. One aspect that runs through all of the others is acceleration, as you will see.

EARTH CHANGES

EARTHQUAKES

Below is a chart of how much shaking the planet has experienced from strong earthquakes for the last 30 years. This chart sums up the Richter values for all earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater for each year. The earthquakes are summed rather than simply counted so that larger earthquakes have slightly greater weight on the chart. To show the trend, the column for each year shows the 10-year average of all that shaking. The trend is unmistakable—things started to really scale up in the early 1990’s:

EarthquakeTrend

The data for this chart was assembled from a straightforward query of the USGS (US Geological Survey) database at their Global Earthquake Search page.

After the massive Japan earthquake and aftershocks of 2011 (it is worth watching this video graphical display of the world’s 2011 earthquakes, especially if you live in the Ring of Fire), there were fewer earthquakes in 2012. However, 2013 is off to a very fast start, as shown in part in this link from Feb 2:

Earth reeling from eight major earthquakes striking in 5 days

And since that post on Feb 2, there have been an 8.0, a 7.0, a 6.4, and a 6.3 in the Solomon Islands, a 6.9 in Japan, and a 6.9 in Columbia.

TSUNAMIS

Earth doesn’t typically see a lot of large tsunamis, but their occurrence has ramped up fivefold in recent years. According to data at the NOAA Global Historical Tsunami Database, which has records going back to 2000 BC, there have been 34 tsunamis with a wave height greater than twenty feet over the last 400 years. Six of those, or 18%, have occurred since the year 2000:

Year Location Water Height Deaths
2000 GREENLAND 50.0
2004 INDONESIA 50.9   226,898
2006 INDONESIA 20.9         802
2009 SAMOA 22.4         192
2010 CHILE 29.0         156
2011 JAPAN 38.9    15,854

In the Twentieth Century, there was a tsunami with a twenty foot wave height about once every ten years. In this century, it has happened once every two years, resulting in the deaths of a quarter million people despite the fact that none of these tsunamis struck a major city. The NOAA’s database shows that even a tsunami less than five feet in height can kill thousands. With 23% of the world’s people living in what is called the “near coastal zone,” tsunamis are likely the single most life-threatening Earth-change phenomenon on the planet.

VOLCANISM

Due to the great behavioral variations of active volcanoes, the tracking of volcanism is not as mathematically rigorous as that for earthquakes and tsunamis. There is a site jointly sponsored by the Smithsonian and the USGS that reports on volcanic activity in the latest week. Here is their list for the week of 30 January–5 February 2013:

New Activity/Unrest:

  • Colima, México
  • Etna, Sicily (Italy)
  • Paluweh, Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia)
  • Rabaul, New Britain
  • Reventador, Ecuador
  • White Island, New Zealand

Ongoing Activity:

  • Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
  • Chirpoi, Kuril Islands (Russia)
  • Copahue, Central Chile-Argentina border
  • Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
  • Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
  • Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
  • Lokon-Empung, Sulawesi
  • Sakura-jima, Kyushu
  • Santa María, Guatemala
  • Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
  • Tolbachik, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

So, their list is all from the Pacific Rim and Italy. According to some who track this carefully, after a total of 77 volcanic eruptive events for all of the year 2012, there were 44 volcanic eruptive events recorded just in the month of January 2013.

Here are some volcano-related headlines shown on the SOTT.NET Earth Changes page in just the last couple of weeks:

The Great Awakening? Ten volcanoes awaken in one week

Indonesia’s Mount Lokon volcano shaken by double eruptions

Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcano erupts in Chile

Tavurvur volcano erupts in Papua New Guinea, ash cloud diverts flights

Hawaii’s Mount Kilauea lava lake hits new record high

Manam volcano (Papua New Guinea): Large explosive eruption sending ash plume to 45,000 ft altitude

Campi Flegrei supervolcano raising anxiety among Italian residents

WEATHER EXTREMES (Storms, Floods, Heat Waves, etc.)

Does anyone on the planet need to be told that storms are ramping up in size, intensity, and frequency, resulting in unprecedented flooding? And that heat waves have taken on new intensities and duration? Is there anyone still claiming, “It’s just the internet, nothing has changed, we just have better reporting.”? Anyone making such claims would be well-advised to review the recent history of the global insurance industry. The venerable Lloyd’s of London almost went bankrupt in the mid-1990’s after 350 years of annual profits. They said they had to completely revamp their weather catastrophe calculations because the actuarial data on which they had relied for 300 years (!) was no longer applicable.

Below are some quotes from September 2010 on the web site of Munich Reinsurance, the largest re-insurance company in the world.  Reinsurers sell insurance to other insurance companies to cover catastrophic losses:

Munich Re’s natural catastrophe database, the most comprehensive of its kind in the world, shows a marked increase in the number of weather-related events. For instance, globally there has been a more than threefold increase in loss-related floods since 1980 and more than double the number of windstorm natural catastrophes…

Prof. Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Centre: “It’s as if the weather machine had changed up a gear.”

Heavy rain and flash floods are affecting not only people living close to rivers but also those who live well away from traditionally flood-prone areas.

And then things accelerated further. By October 2012, Munich Re reported that the numbers were even larger. They reported that weather-related loss events in North America had grown fivefold over the past three decades, and that there was “an increase factor of 4 in Asia, 2.5 in Africa, 2 in Europe, and 1.5 in South America.”

There are literally thousands of headlines available to demonstrate this idea further, here are just a few:

Cyclone frequency in Indonesia increases 28-fold since 2002

Global warming – or something much worse? Australia adds new colour to temperature maps

The temperature forecast for next Monday by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is so unprecedented – over 52C – that it has had to add a new colour to the top of its scale, a suitably incandescent purple.

Aus_New_Color

Tornado slams into Italian steel plant – video

To give you an idea how rare tornadoes are in Italy, four tornadoes in total were recorded in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries, three were recorded in the 20th century and four were recorded since 2008 alone, with two of those coming in 2012.

And the damage is not limited to single instances, it is cumulative in many areas, for example, the US East Coast:

Former USGS scientist: Coastal cities are ‘sitting ducks’ for next big storm

“We have left our coasts sitting ducks, and Sandy destroyed these natural protections,” she said.

In the space of a few hours, Sandy blew through the sand dunes that had served as natural protections for communities up and down the Atlantic coast.

“Basically these dunes build up over geologic time, and yet the superstorm wore them down over a couple of days, and it is going to take geologic time again to build them back up,” McNutt said.

For those who are more video oriented, this youtube poster does a good job of grabbing news video of weather extremes and earth changes from around the world each month. These can be useful to watch since they can remind just how quickly, under the tremendous distraction of daily life, we forget what’s been happening:

Extreme Weather Events and Earth Changes DECEMBER 2012

The November installment includes Superstorm Sandy. Since the news media typically won’t cover a weather story unless there is a body count to report, few are aware that Lower Manhattan in New York City is still seriously impaired, with skyscrapers running from emergency generators on the street because their basements are still flooded.

RISING TIDES – WITH PERPLEXITY THE SEA AND WAVES ROARING NOVEMBER 2012

FIRE AND ICE – EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS AND EARTH CHANGES JANUARY 2013

(While I applaud SOTT.NET and the maker of the youtubes above, fidockave213, for their excellent work at collecting earth change information, I am not aligned with their editorial views.)

Part 2 describes a huge weather shift taking place on the planet that almost no one is talking about!

What then can we do? Part 1

Let’s talk about what we can do about the consequences implied in The financial system is based on 12 promises that are lies, dealing with these questions:

  1. How can we prepare for the collapse of the financial system?
  2. How can we prepare for supply chain outages and disruptions?

Preliminary Remarks

In our view, one principle involved here is quite simple: If you take some of the key steps outlined below, you will be in a position to help yourself and others. If you don’t, you will need help from others. At this point, there is still some time to choose your position, but that time is growing short.

Since this is a transition, we want be mindful of where we are coming from and where we are going to:

  • We are moving from old systems and structures that are detrimental to humanity; they are collapsing from their own growing uselessness and corruption, and we are hastening their collapse by eliminating or methodically reducing our participation, our complicity, in those systems;
  • We seek to protect ourselves and our communities during the period of collapse; and,
  • We want our actions to be positive steps toward the world we aim to create, thus we aim to “be the change” and to take actions that are wins for ourselves, humanity, and the planet.

Obviously, but perhaps worth stating: We don’t know how you should live. The suggestions in this post are based on our own thought experiments, research, and by watching how people have responded to change in recent years. Some people have found the changes difficult, others have found them liberating. The actions recommended here are some that a person might take if they wish to glide through the coming changes rather than struggle through them. Please consider each recommendation for action to be a summary. We will have future posts with greater detail on each recommendation.

And I would like to be clear about one thing: I am planning to be in a community where people are lending each other a hand so all can live well. I am not planning to live in a bunker with guns pointed in all directions. Local sufficiency is what I am aiming for. I am of the opinion that this can be achieved outside of the major metropolitan areas.

In terms of priorities on the Outer Work list below, do the precious metals thing first, today. After that, if there are things on the list that you’ve “always wanted to do,” perhaps it will be best to do those next, perhaps there is a very good reason that you’ve always wanted to do them.

Inner Work

As with all aims of consequence on the physical plane, some of the work is inner:

TURN FROM WANTS TOWARD NEEDS: In these times, does more need to be said about this?

EMBRACE CHANGE: It’s clear that those who have accepted the changes of the last several years have had a much easier time of it, inside and outside, than those who have resisted change at every turn. In our view, the pace of change is accelerating and will continue to do so, thus embracing change will become an increasingly important contributor to a positive inner state. Common forms of resistance are denial that anything is changing at all, wanting and expecting things to go “back to normal,” pretending that “nothing can be done about it so I’m not going to change anything,” etc. Beyond accepting change is its active pursuit: movement toward that life which truly and deeply makes sense to you. When enough of us are on that track, the world will be a beautifully different place.

MAINTAIN EQUANIMITY: Obviously, people can be thrown off kilter by both the acceleration and by the disappearance of societal structures on which they believe they are reliant. And “off kilter” seems to reach new heights—if the latest news stories are any indication, perhaps that should be depths—every week. So whatever activities people do to maintain their connection with what is real in them, whatever they do to raise their vibration—meditation, chanting, breathing exercises, sensing exercises, energetic healings, breathing the marrow of the sun through their crown chakra and distributing that energy inside to where it is needed, whatever … these need to be very high priority activities. Ignoring these is an increasingly high-risk strategy as we proceed through this transition.

WATCH THE TRENDS: Life is clearly telegraphing the coming changes by presenting examples of each and then ramping up their frequency and intensity. The trends are not mysterious, they are very clear. We are all being shown where all this is proceeding in finance, politics, the recognition of the need for inner work, weather changes, earth changes, nuclear energy, magnetic pole migration, etc. If you observe these trends without bias, you are unlikely to be shocked as they accelerate. Expecting trend acceleration is key. As some say in Tibet, “Recognition is liberation.”

Outer Work

MONEY: When the current financial system fails, the typical sources of money will be gone or the money they deliver will be nearly worthless due to over-printing. The solution is minted bullion coins obtained from reputable, low-cost dealers for storage controlled by you.

If you have savings denominated in fiat money, convert as much of it as you can into minted gold and silver bullion coins. Minted bullion coins means gold and silver US Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs, Australian Kangaroos, British Kings (“Sovereigns”), Kruggerands, or so-called “junk silver,” that is, pre-1964 US dimes, quarters, and half dollars that contain 90% actual silver content. These bullion coins are typically priced at some small percent above the world spot price of the physical metal itself, though junk silver can sometimes be purchased below the spot price from a good dealer.

We are not talking about gold bars, which are far easier to counterfeit than coins. We are not talking about special proof coins, which are overpriced for their metal content. And we are DEFINITELY NOT talking about buying numismatic coins, namely those coins touted as valuable because they are old and rare. That is a world for collectors and experts. If you buy them, you are 100% certain to be overpaying for their gold or silver content, and typically overpaying by a lot. If a dealer tries to steer you toward those, steer away from that dealer.

What is wanted now are coins valued for their metal content, coins that are easily recognized for that content, coins that will have known value on the street when national currencies are dying. Avoid all “gold experts” who tell you to put 5% to 10% of your money into physical metals or who call gold an “asset class.” They do not understand the scale and scope of what’s happening. Either that or they think we are all so rich that losing 90% to 95% of our savings is somehow acceptable. If you have no savings in fiat currency and no metals, do your best to obtain what metals you can. Make it a priority to save a few dollars on a schedule and then buy a silver coin or two when you can. Your effort, perhaps your sacrifice, will be very well rewarded.

And we are talking about minted bullion coins where you control possession, not situations where you have a piece of paper that says you own some gold somewhere. Most such papers will turn out to be unreliable.

When would it be best to convert fiat savings to bullions coins? Now. Today. Here’s one method: buy as much as you can stomach buying. When you’re done, do that again. And then again. Yes, leaving a little money in regular checking accounts to cover near-term expenses is a good idea. And if you can, it is a good idea to have a few months worth of paper currency around as well since there will be a time, after the death of electronic national currencies, when many vendors won’t know the value of precious metal coins so some will still want paper currency. Our research says that it would be wise to complete this conversion process by August 2012.

If these statements on precious metals are clear, great. If they are not and you want to act soon, please e-mail and we can elaborate on tactics prior to doing a major detailed post on that topic, for which there may not be time right away.

In Part 2, we will deal with topics related to outages of the global supply chain.